Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama          下载免费PDF全文

Ruoyu Wang  Latif Kalin  Wenhui Kuang  Hanqin Tian 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5530-5546

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainty in best management practice effectiveness under future climate scenarios          下载免费PDF全文

Sean A. Woznicki  A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2550-2566

Uncertainty of best management practice (BMP) performance in future climates is an important consideration for water resources managers. The objective of this study was to quantify the level of uncertainty in performance of seven agricultural BMPs due to climate change in reducing sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool coupled with mid‐21^st century climate data from the Community Climate System Model were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Tuttle Creek Lake Watershed of Kansas and Nebraska. Uncertainty level of each BMP was determined using Latin Hypercube Sampling, a constrained Monte Carlo sampling technique. Samples were taken from distributions of several variables (monthly precipitation, temperature, CO₂, and BMP implementation parameters). Cumulative distribution functions were constructed for each BMP, pollutant, and climate scenario combination. Results demonstrated that BMP performance uncertainty is amplified in the extreme climate scenario. Among BMPs, native grass replacement generally had higher uncertainty level but also had the greatest reductions. This study highlights the importance of incorporating uncertainty analysis into mitigation strategies aiming to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

施肥对新垦绿洲风沙土肥力及碳积累的影响     

苏永中  杨荣  刘婷娜 《中国沙漠》2019,39(3):1-6

利用2005年安排在临泽边缘绿洲沙地农田的长期施肥定位试验，研究不同用量有机肥、化肥、有机肥和化肥配施对绿洲沙地土壤肥力及有机碳积累的影响。试验包括高量有机肥单施（M3），氮磷化肥单施（NP3），低、中、高量氮磷钾化肥单施（NPK1，NPK2，NPK3），及低、中、高量氮磷钾化肥配施高、中、低量有机肥9个处理（NPK1M3，NPK2M2，NPK3M1），测定分析10年后不同施肥处理耕层（0~20 cm）土壤物理化学性状特征及有机碳动态。结果表明：施有机肥及有机无机配施处理较单施化肥处理容重下降0.13 g·cm^-3，田间持水量提高6.7%，单施有机肥、有机无机配施较单施化肥，土壤有机碳（SOC）和全氮含量分别提高64.8%、36.3%和64.9%、49.5%。高量施用氮磷化肥和氮磷钾化肥处理全磷含量最高，有机肥及有机无机配施较单施化肥有效氮含量显著增加，有机无机配施及高量施用磷肥土壤有效磷积累明显，高量施用有机肥能显著提升有效钾含量。连续施肥处理10年后，SOC含量提高了1.68~2.84倍，土壤全氮、全磷、碱解氮及有效磷均有一定程度的提高，但单施化肥及有机肥与氮磷化肥配施有效钾含量下降。SOC的积累速率单施化肥、有机无机配施，单施有机肥处理分别为0.27、0.59，0.87 g·kg^-1·a^-1。增施有机肥、适量减少化肥投入、氮磷钾化肥的平衡施用是绿洲沙地农田土壤肥力持续提升的施肥管理对策。  相似文献   

基于GRACE RL05数据研究智利地震长期震后重力变化特征          下载免费PDF全文

严畅达  徐亚 《地球物理学报》2019,62(6):2115-2127

利用GRACE卫星重力可对地震引起的大范围重力变化进行观测,并从重力数据中发现主要的变化特征.发生于2010年的MW8.8智利地震震级较高,可观测到震中附近广泛的同震和震后长期重力变化.本文基于GRACE RL05Level-2时变重力场数据,对2010年智利地震的同震和震后长期变化进行了计算.对同震变化的计算发现,智利地震引起的同震变化极值达-5μGal,而本文为减小水文信号的干扰而采用的3年平均的方法可以获得良好的效果.在对震后重力变化的计算中发现,智利地震震后在2011—2016年间的重力变化存在先增大后逐渐衰减的过程.对震后变化的拟合表明,智利地震震中附近有约1μGal的震后重力变化,震后变化的特征时间约1.1年.同时,在智利地震中未出现较明显的两个震后变化阶段(短期、长期).  相似文献   

Environmental change and the informal plastic recycling networks of Kolkata     

Nicolas Schlitz 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(3):450-467

This article introduces plastic recycling networks in Kolkata, India, as a case to illustrate the contradictory entanglement of economic and environmental change in urban informal contexts of the Global South. In light of the prevailing environmental critique of informal plastic recycling in India, this article discusses plastic recyclers’ environmental impact and contribution as well as the potential to enhance the environmental and economic performance of their business. Network and chain approaches in the emerging field of Environmental Economic Geography are combined with the notion of social metabolism to conceptualize the entanglement of environmental and economic processes as well as socio-environmental inequalities entailed in recycling networks. The analysis reveals the impact that the heterogeneity and fluctuation of plastic waste supply has on the economic organization of recycling networks, giving rise to distinct forms of governance in its intermediate and down-stream segments. Such an integrated perspective also serves to explain why environmental upgrading is hard to achieve under prevailing circumstances by plastic recyclers in Kolkata. Based on an assessment of the social and political conditions of informality under which plastic recyclers operate, the adoption of common assumptions about ecological modernization imbuing parts of Environmental Economic Geography is called into question.  相似文献   

天山南坡高冰川覆盖率的木扎提河流域水文过程对气候变化的响应   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

赵求东  赵传成  秦艳  苌亚平  王建 《冰川冻土》2020,42(4):1285-1298

木扎提河是天山南坡冰川面积覆盖率最大（48.2%）的河流， 流域径流过程对气候变化极为敏感， 为了合理管理和规划水资源， 确保水资源的可持续利用， 亟需定量评估气候变化对该流域水文过程的影响。以VIC-CAS分布式水文模型为计算平台， 利用实测的径流和两次冰川编目间的冰川面积变化数据开展了模型的多目标参数化校正和验证， 有效提高了模拟结果的“真实性”， 然后通过数值模拟结果结合观测数据定量解析了流域径流的组成、 变化特征及对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明： 木扎提河总径流集中在暖季（5 - 9月）， 占全年总径流量的77.9%， 冰川径流、 融雪径流和降雨径流分别占总径流量的66.6%、 26.4%和7.0%。1971 - 2010年木扎提河流域气温和降水呈显著增加趋势， 由于降水的增加， 降雨和融雪径流均呈增加趋势， 但冰川径流呈现明显减少趋势， 导致总径流呈现下降趋势。在RCP4.5情景下， 未来该流域气温呈现明显升高趋势， 降水表现为微弱下降趋势； 气候变暖后， 更多降水以降雨形式发生， 未来降雨径流将明显增加， 降雪和融雪径流已于20世纪90年代达到峰值， 随后明显减少； 冰川面积将持续萎缩， 冰川径流于21世纪10年代达到拐点， 随后明显减少， 导致河道总径流量也将明显减少。  相似文献   

泥水平衡盾构用海水泥浆的改性试验研究     

杨振兴  陈健  孙振川  游永锋  周建军  吕乾乾 《岩土力学》2020,41(2):501-508

由于海水中富集大量可溶性盐类及各种金属离子成分，利用海水配置的海水泥浆具有相对密度大、胶体率低、稳定性差、失水量高等特点，不能满足泥水平衡盾构施工要求。为实现对海水泥浆改性以达到利用海水泥浆维持开挖面稳定，降低穿江越海盾构施工成本，选用CMC（羧甲基纤维素钠）、纤维素PAC（聚阴离子纤维素）、聚丙烯酸铵等8种添加剂进行海水泥浆性质变化试验，优选出对海水泥浆改性明显的添加剂，并分析优选添加剂掺入量和时间对海水泥浆性质的影响规律。同时，基于优选的添加剂CMC，利用泥膜形成试验平台进行改性海水泥浆地层渗透试验。研究表明：不同添加剂对海水泥浆性质变化差异较大，增黏剂PAC、CMC对海水泥浆的改性效果稍好，24 h离析出现浑浊层、混合层、絮凝沉淀层。海水泥浆对地层渗透的滤水量大于改性海水泥浆，泥皮也稍厚，但呈稀疏状态。可以推测，添加剂中和部分海水成分，呈絮凝沉淀，多余添加剂表现出对淡水泥浆的增稠作用。  相似文献   

基于变化轨迹分析方法的生态用地流失空间关联研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘金雅  汪东川  孙然好  汪翡翠  胡炳旭  陈俊合  孙志超 《地理研究》2020,39(1):103-114

针对现有研究割裂了生态用地流失这一基本变化过程的不足,本文基于变化轨迹分析方法,从过程完整性角度探求了京津冀城市群地区生态用地流失的空间关联特征。结果表明：① 京津冀城市群地区土地利用变化主要表现为林地、草地、水域和耕地的流失,流失面积的40%转为人工表面;② 林地、草地和水域流失的空间自相关性随空间尺度增大而增强,7 km×7 km空间尺度上3种生态用地流失空间正相关性较强,且随距离阈值增加而降低;③ 距离阈值为10 km时,林地、草地流失高发区集中分布在京津冀西北部地区,水域流失高发区集中分布在东部渤海湾附近,生态环境保护应从京津冀协同发展角度,打破区域发展不均衡,促进京津冀城市群全面发展。  相似文献   

COSMO-SkyMed颜色变换强度RC法南京建设用地变化检测     

张涛  王源  陈富龙  周伟  胡祺 《测绘通报》2019,(11):74-78,84

基于非局部滤波的SAR强度RC合成变化检测法对小图斑、线型地物等动态监测灵敏，且对数据获取无时空基线要求，在多云多雨城市地表要素变化检测中具备潜力。本文研究以多时相SAR强度RC合成图为数据源，提出一种基于色彩空间变换的变化图斑半自动提取方法，即通过色彩空间转换、训练样本选取、监督分类影像分割、变化区域提取4步骤，可实现基于SAR强度图的城市建设用地动态监测与图斑高效更新。选取南京河西新城与江北新区为示范，以最优参数配置（3特征向量与10样本类别）进行试验，实现了优于88%的建设用地查准率指标。  相似文献